According to data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, the decline in China’s exports in June was greatly narrowed, and the chain showed a relatively high growth. Experts pointed out that exports have shown signs of improvement, and the fourth quarter is growing or coming. The industry believes that there is not much room for further adjustment of the export tax rebate policy.
Exports in the fourth quarter are growing
Liu Nenghua, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Department, pointed out that some developed economies such as Europe and the United States have already had some positive signals. The bottom of the economy may be due to the third quarter of this year. It is expected to start the recovery process at the end of 2009 or early 2010. China’s exports are also expected to bottom out at the end of the year.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, also pointed out that the new export order index of the manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI has risen for 7 consecutive months and will be gradually reflected in the year-on-year data of imports and exports in the second half of this year. increase.
In fact, China's labor-intensive products have taken the lead in turning. According to the data, in June, the year-on-year decline in the export of China's major labor-intensive products was less than the overall decline of 21.8%. Among them, the export of clothing and clothing accessories was 45.86 billion US dollars, down 8.5%; the export of footwear was 12.91 billion US dollars, down 4.3%; the export of furniture was 11.76 billion US dollars, down 9.8%; the export of plastic products was 6.57 billion US dollars, down 7.1%; the export of luggage was 5.89 billion. The dollar fell by 7%. In the same period, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached US$306.67 billion, down 21.2% year-on-year. Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was US$124.3 billion, down 22.7%; the export of machinery and equipment was US$103.88 billion, down 18.9%.
Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, said that with the emergence of the series of policies to promote export policies, foreign trade will turn around this year and will continue to rise next year.
Limited export tax rebate policy adjustment space
Recently, the reporter learned from the tax authorities that since China’s export tax rebate rate was raised seven times in August last year, 15% of the total of more than 13,000 tax number goods have achieved full export tax rebates.
The data shows that after the recent increase in export tax rebate rate for seven consecutive times, among the total exports of more than 13,000 tax numbers, 1971 tax-numbered goods have achieved full export tax rebates, accounting for 15% of the total. The industry believes that in the long run, the direction of development is to implement a zero tax rate on exports in a stable manner. However, at present, the export tax rebate policy still has a strong macro-control color, which cannot be achieved in the short term.
Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the National Information Center's Economic Forecasting Department, pointed out that the current export has entered the bottom stage, and the export situation will not deteriorate further. The fourth quarter may start to improve, and the urgency of policy adjustment is greatly reduced.
Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said that the export tax rebate policy can indeed reduce the pressure on enterprises, but foreign customers will ask us to make profits, and enterprises can not fully enjoy the benefits brought by the export tax rebate policy, as opposed to adjusting the export tax rebate. It may be more effective to reduce taxes directly to companies.
Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the export tax rebate rate should not be further improved because the effect of this is limited and the current adjustment space is limited.
In 2009, China’s fiscal balance was in a tight state. The national fiscal 2009 budget is based on a 10% increase in revenue and a 20% increase in expenditure. The budget deficit is 950 billion. The deficit rate calculated at 8% of the national economic growth rate is 3%, which is still within the security line. However, according to the trend of fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first half of the year, it is very difficult to complete the annual budget. According to Wei Fengchun, chief macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, if the income grows by 5% and the expenditure increases by 25%, the annual fiscal deficit will reach 136 billion yuan and the deficit rate will be 4.2%. If the income growth is 0%, the expenditure will increase by 25%. %, the deficit rate will exceed 5%.
It is generally believed that the deficit rate of developing countries exceeds 3%, systemic risks will increase, and inflation, exchange rate depreciation, capital flight, and asset short-selling may all occur. These risks are unimaginable for China. Therefore, experts believe that there is not much room for further tax cuts by the government.
According to industry insiders, although the export tax rebate will help enterprises to survive the crisis in the short term, they cannot expect fiscal and taxation policies to help export enterprises maintain a backward business model. In the long run, export enterprises should step up efforts to adjust the structure of their products, accelerate industrial upgrading, improve the technological content of commodities, and fundamentally promote the steady and healthy development of foreign trade.
Exports in the fourth quarter are growing
Liu Nenghua, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Department, pointed out that some developed economies such as Europe and the United States have already had some positive signals. The bottom of the economy may be due to the third quarter of this year. It is expected to start the recovery process at the end of 2009 or early 2010. China’s exports are also expected to bottom out at the end of the year.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, also pointed out that the new export order index of the manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI has risen for 7 consecutive months and will be gradually reflected in the year-on-year data of imports and exports in the second half of this year. increase.
In fact, China's labor-intensive products have taken the lead in turning. According to the data, in June, the year-on-year decline in the export of China's major labor-intensive products was less than the overall decline of 21.8%. Among them, the export of clothing and clothing accessories was 45.86 billion US dollars, down 8.5%; the export of footwear was 12.91 billion US dollars, down 4.3%; the export of furniture was 11.76 billion US dollars, down 9.8%; the export of plastic products was 6.57 billion US dollars, down 7.1%; the export of luggage was 5.89 billion. The dollar fell by 7%. In the same period, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached US$306.67 billion, down 21.2% year-on-year. Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was US$124.3 billion, down 22.7%; the export of machinery and equipment was US$103.88 billion, down 18.9%.
Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, said that with the emergence of the series of policies to promote export policies, foreign trade will turn around this year and will continue to rise next year.
Limited export tax rebate policy adjustment space
Recently, the reporter learned from the tax authorities that since China’s export tax rebate rate was raised seven times in August last year, 15% of the total of more than 13,000 tax number goods have achieved full export tax rebates.
The data shows that after the recent increase in export tax rebate rate for seven consecutive times, among the total exports of more than 13,000 tax numbers, 1971 tax-numbered goods have achieved full export tax rebates, accounting for 15% of the total. The industry believes that in the long run, the direction of development is to implement a zero tax rate on exports in a stable manner. However, at present, the export tax rebate policy still has a strong macro-control color, which cannot be achieved in the short term.
Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the National Information Center's Economic Forecasting Department, pointed out that the current export has entered the bottom stage, and the export situation will not deteriorate further. The fourth quarter may start to improve, and the urgency of policy adjustment is greatly reduced.
Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said that the export tax rebate policy can indeed reduce the pressure on enterprises, but foreign customers will ask us to make profits, and enterprises can not fully enjoy the benefits brought by the export tax rebate policy, as opposed to adjusting the export tax rebate. It may be more effective to reduce taxes directly to companies.
Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the export tax rebate rate should not be further improved because the effect of this is limited and the current adjustment space is limited.
In 2009, China’s fiscal balance was in a tight state. The national fiscal 2009 budget is based on a 10% increase in revenue and a 20% increase in expenditure. The budget deficit is 950 billion. The deficit rate calculated at 8% of the national economic growth rate is 3%, which is still within the security line. However, according to the trend of fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first half of the year, it is very difficult to complete the annual budget. According to Wei Fengchun, chief macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, if the income grows by 5% and the expenditure increases by 25%, the annual fiscal deficit will reach 136 billion yuan and the deficit rate will be 4.2%. If the income growth is 0%, the expenditure will increase by 25%. %, the deficit rate will exceed 5%.
It is generally believed that the deficit rate of developing countries exceeds 3%, systemic risks will increase, and inflation, exchange rate depreciation, capital flight, and asset short-selling may all occur. These risks are unimaginable for China. Therefore, experts believe that there is not much room for further tax cuts by the government.
According to industry insiders, although the export tax rebate will help enterprises to survive the crisis in the short term, they cannot expect fiscal and taxation policies to help export enterprises maintain a backward business model. In the long run, export enterprises should step up efforts to adjust the structure of their products, accelerate industrial upgrading, improve the technological content of commodities, and fundamentally promote the steady and healthy development of foreign trade.
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