Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, has described the “definite adjustment†of the overall operation of China’s national economy in 2010. 2010 was an extraordinary year in the history of China’s development, and the national economy maintained a steady and rapid development rate of 10.3%. The "Eleventh Five-Year" national economic development has drawn a relatively successful conclusion.
However, in order to observe the steel production and steel market in China in macroeconomic operation in 2011, which points should we pay more attention to? Based on the 2010 national economic operation data, we can also find out which macro “policy challenges†we will face.
Here, we try to find the link between the macro data background and the operation of the steel industry. For the series of macro data, although we can't study each one carefully, we can find out some policy cues...
First, almost all the experts are sympathetic to such a consensus: the latest economic data has increased the central bank to take more austerity measures to suppress the pressure of inflation. The latest macro data shows that China’s economy has gradually moved towards recovery from the impact of the world economic crisis. It also shows that the Chinese government’s 4 trillion yuan investment plan has received corresponding results. However, at the same time, the resumption of growth has also brought a lot of negative effects, rising inflation, asset bubble worries, and more imbalanced economic structure. This is an important “policy challenge†that needs our attention in 2011.
[One of the related points: In 2011, the central government will pay close attention to and adopt corresponding policies to prevent inflation, asset bubbles, and structural imbalances. In this context, we should pay particular attention to two “policy challenges†that may affect the supply and demand of domestic steel products in this context: First, continue to maintain the current macroeconomic policies. The result of this choice is that the growth rate of the ring economy can be maintained in the short term. At a higher rate, but in the medium term, inflation may once again exceed expectations. After that, it may be necessary to adopt a sharp tightening of monetary policy, cut investment projects, and implement price control on a wider scale. The second measure is to take immediate and vigorous measures, including Strictly control the new ** and new construction projects in the coming months, rapidly increase interest rates, and strive to reduce the growth rate of the ring economy to a moderate range within 1-2 quarters. ]
Second, most experts tend to view inflation in such a way: In the second half of 2010, although the increase in the prices of agricultural products has hype factors, the main factor is that while the population is growing in China, the land is decreasing with urbanization and industrialization. Because the “Lewis Turning Point†has emerged in China, the increase in labor prices is inevitable, but the increase in wages during the same period has not been fully reflected in the price, and the pressure is still mainly on business, and it will definitely be released to the market in 2011; The quantitative easing policy may lead to imported inflationary pressures.
[Related point two: Under the impetus of the above three factors, the full-year inflation level in 2011 is under greater pressure, and some months may exceed expectations. In this context, we should pay particular attention to the “policy challenge†that may affect the supply and demand of domestic steel products in this context: If the current domestic price is pushed by the above three factors, then the increase in the currency is only passive adaptation; if prices continue to rise (or difficult to control within the expected moderate range), then the business will inevitably generate more money demand. If the money and funds do not increase at this time, the production and operation of steel companies and steel traders and trade operations may be affected or occur. difficulty. ]
Thirdly, experts have the same kind of judgment for real estate in China: If housing prices continue to soar, it will have an adverse impact on the overall social mentality, investor mentality, local government mentality, and central policy formulation. The key to the real estate problem is to see whether the price of the real estate market can be properly stabilized. Can we find some new ideas and new methods for real estate system reform in 2011? That is, can we completely mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and make them take the protection of housing as Operating your own assets is like operating land and operating affordable housing. This will not only play a major role in 2011 but also in the next 5-10 years.
[No. 3 of related points: There is no doubt that the central government's planned and adjusted policies on real estate in 2011 were continuous and unwavering. Therefore, we must pay attention to seeing the two sides of the macro "policy challenge": we must not only control investment and curb rising housing prices, but also ensure market supply and build a large number of affordable housing (in 2010, 5.9 million new housing units were built and 3.7 million were built). Set; to ensure the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing in 2011). As a result, we must not only see the “containment†of steel demand in order to curb rising housing prices, but also the “benefits†of the nation’s affordable housing construction policy for steel demand. (The key lies in the various The supporting measures, the specific implementation of funds, the time nodes, etc.). ]
Others: In 2011, the state will pay more attention to “point control†of important projects that have important practical impacts on society and people’s lives and vital interests, and carry out large-scale investment (railway, highway, urban public infrastructure construction and major renovation projects, etc.) During the implementation of the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan during the start of a large number of projects, in 2011 or need to arrange some follow-up supporting construction funds; we can not ignore another macro policy and the steel industry's "association point", namely: National Development and Reform Commission 2010 In 2011, plans were announced for the construction of 23 key projects in the Western Development and the total investment of 682.2 billion yuan. These funds were basically spent on infrastructure construction.
[Related point 4: In 2011, our focus will include the future effects of “existing policiesâ€, and we must not overlook the continuation effect of “conventional policiesâ€. In view of this, when we observe the steel market in 2011, we should pay special attention to the “difficult policy challenges†in the context of “protecting inflation†and “guarantee growthâ€, and we must pay close attention to certain “points†that may be present or may appear. "Control" influences certain supply and demand changes in the steel market. ]
......
"If 2009 is a difficult year for China's economy, 2010 will be a more complicated year. We have gone through this year and we may have an updated understanding of the complexity of the economic environment facing the economy in 2010." We say that it is complicated, first of all because macro-control policies tend to be more complex. On the one hand, we must maintain the stability and continuity of macro-control policies, and we must also increase pertinence and flexibility in accordance with changes in the economic situation." - This is the description made by Ma Jiantang, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics, on China's macroeconomic performance. It is also applicable to describe the operational status of China's steel industry and steel market.
Honestly speaking, China's steel market has undergone so many years of repeated “frustrations.†The traders in which they are involved in trading profits and losses have also become more mature, more astute, and more calm... Perhaps, as long as we can be the fastest We will pass out some of the macroeconomic “policies†that have been selected, and traders will be able to realize the prob- lems of the market – I believe, there should be no problem. At the same time, it is also believed that as long as it is a trader’s temporary "not bad money" and "just-in-time" arching out a short-term "high price" of "high inventory and demand", it is no longer something new.
However, only here, we still need special tips: As the "12th Five-Year Plan" in the first year, the domestic steel market in 2011 will highlight a national background characteristics - parallel to the macro "policy challenges."
However, in order to observe the steel production and steel market in China in macroeconomic operation in 2011, which points should we pay more attention to? Based on the 2010 national economic operation data, we can also find out which macro “policy challenges†we will face.
Here, we try to find the link between the macro data background and the operation of the steel industry. For the series of macro data, although we can't study each one carefully, we can find out some policy cues...
First, almost all the experts are sympathetic to such a consensus: the latest economic data has increased the central bank to take more austerity measures to suppress the pressure of inflation. The latest macro data shows that China’s economy has gradually moved towards recovery from the impact of the world economic crisis. It also shows that the Chinese government’s 4 trillion yuan investment plan has received corresponding results. However, at the same time, the resumption of growth has also brought a lot of negative effects, rising inflation, asset bubble worries, and more imbalanced economic structure. This is an important “policy challenge†that needs our attention in 2011.
[One of the related points: In 2011, the central government will pay close attention to and adopt corresponding policies to prevent inflation, asset bubbles, and structural imbalances. In this context, we should pay particular attention to two “policy challenges†that may affect the supply and demand of domestic steel products in this context: First, continue to maintain the current macroeconomic policies. The result of this choice is that the growth rate of the ring economy can be maintained in the short term. At a higher rate, but in the medium term, inflation may once again exceed expectations. After that, it may be necessary to adopt a sharp tightening of monetary policy, cut investment projects, and implement price control on a wider scale. The second measure is to take immediate and vigorous measures, including Strictly control the new ** and new construction projects in the coming months, rapidly increase interest rates, and strive to reduce the growth rate of the ring economy to a moderate range within 1-2 quarters. ]
Second, most experts tend to view inflation in such a way: In the second half of 2010, although the increase in the prices of agricultural products has hype factors, the main factor is that while the population is growing in China, the land is decreasing with urbanization and industrialization. Because the “Lewis Turning Point†has emerged in China, the increase in labor prices is inevitable, but the increase in wages during the same period has not been fully reflected in the price, and the pressure is still mainly on business, and it will definitely be released to the market in 2011; The quantitative easing policy may lead to imported inflationary pressures.
[Related point two: Under the impetus of the above three factors, the full-year inflation level in 2011 is under greater pressure, and some months may exceed expectations. In this context, we should pay particular attention to the “policy challenge†that may affect the supply and demand of domestic steel products in this context: If the current domestic price is pushed by the above three factors, then the increase in the currency is only passive adaptation; if prices continue to rise (or difficult to control within the expected moderate range), then the business will inevitably generate more money demand. If the money and funds do not increase at this time, the production and operation of steel companies and steel traders and trade operations may be affected or occur. difficulty. ]
Thirdly, experts have the same kind of judgment for real estate in China: If housing prices continue to soar, it will have an adverse impact on the overall social mentality, investor mentality, local government mentality, and central policy formulation. The key to the real estate problem is to see whether the price of the real estate market can be properly stabilized. Can we find some new ideas and new methods for real estate system reform in 2011? That is, can we completely mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and make them take the protection of housing as Operating your own assets is like operating land and operating affordable housing. This will not only play a major role in 2011 but also in the next 5-10 years.
[No. 3 of related points: There is no doubt that the central government's planned and adjusted policies on real estate in 2011 were continuous and unwavering. Therefore, we must pay attention to seeing the two sides of the macro "policy challenge": we must not only control investment and curb rising housing prices, but also ensure market supply and build a large number of affordable housing (in 2010, 5.9 million new housing units were built and 3.7 million were built). Set; to ensure the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing in 2011). As a result, we must not only see the “containment†of steel demand in order to curb rising housing prices, but also the “benefits†of the nation’s affordable housing construction policy for steel demand. (The key lies in the various The supporting measures, the specific implementation of funds, the time nodes, etc.). ]
Others: In 2011, the state will pay more attention to “point control†of important projects that have important practical impacts on society and people’s lives and vital interests, and carry out large-scale investment (railway, highway, urban public infrastructure construction and major renovation projects, etc.) During the implementation of the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan during the start of a large number of projects, in 2011 or need to arrange some follow-up supporting construction funds; we can not ignore another macro policy and the steel industry's "association point", namely: National Development and Reform Commission 2010 In 2011, plans were announced for the construction of 23 key projects in the Western Development and the total investment of 682.2 billion yuan. These funds were basically spent on infrastructure construction.
[Related point 4: In 2011, our focus will include the future effects of “existing policiesâ€, and we must not overlook the continuation effect of “conventional policiesâ€. In view of this, when we observe the steel market in 2011, we should pay special attention to the “difficult policy challenges†in the context of “protecting inflation†and “guarantee growthâ€, and we must pay close attention to certain “points†that may be present or may appear. "Control" influences certain supply and demand changes in the steel market. ]
......
"If 2009 is a difficult year for China's economy, 2010 will be a more complicated year. We have gone through this year and we may have an updated understanding of the complexity of the economic environment facing the economy in 2010." We say that it is complicated, first of all because macro-control policies tend to be more complex. On the one hand, we must maintain the stability and continuity of macro-control policies, and we must also increase pertinence and flexibility in accordance with changes in the economic situation." - This is the description made by Ma Jiantang, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics, on China's macroeconomic performance. It is also applicable to describe the operational status of China's steel industry and steel market.
Honestly speaking, China's steel market has undergone so many years of repeated “frustrations.†The traders in which they are involved in trading profits and losses have also become more mature, more astute, and more calm... Perhaps, as long as we can be the fastest We will pass out some of the macroeconomic “policies†that have been selected, and traders will be able to realize the prob- lems of the market – I believe, there should be no problem. At the same time, it is also believed that as long as it is a trader’s temporary "not bad money" and "just-in-time" arching out a short-term "high price" of "high inventory and demand", it is no longer something new.
However, only here, we still need special tips: As the "12th Five-Year Plan" in the first year, the domestic steel market in 2011 will highlight a national background characteristics - parallel to the macro "policy challenges."
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