Rubber prices skyrocketing supply tensions will continue until next year

In recent months, the price of natural rubber has risen wildly and hit a record high. Data show that on September 30th, domestic natural rubber spot and ** price still hovered around 27,000 yuan / ton, and in early November, the highest price of natural rubber ** reached 34,150 yuan / ton high, has soared in January 25%. According to the spot price of natural rubber of RMB 16,000/ton in October last year, the current price of natural rubber has doubled in one year. This round of natural rubber prices has greatly exceeded the highest price of 28,000 yuan / ton before the financial crisis.

We believe that the imbalance between supply and demand is the most fundamental cause of the rise in natural rubber prices, and it is expected that this round of rise will continue until next year. From the supply side, the recent disastrous weather in the rubber-producing areas of the world has seriously affected the natural rubber market. In Thailand, the production of natural rubber may decline by 4.1% to 930,000 tons in the fourth quarter due to heavy rainfall affecting rubber tapping. Among the two major producing areas in China, Yunnan experienced severe drought, and Hainan suffered heavy rain and rubber harvesting was affected. The reduction in domestic natural rubber production this year is a foregone conclusion, which may be more than 40,000 tons less than last year, a decrease of about 6% from 2009.

From the demand side, the high boom in the domestic auto industry also supports the price of natural rubber. According to the latest automobile production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September this year, China’s auto production and sales volume increased by 36.1% and 36.0%, respectively, year-on-year. At present, China's rubber production can only meet one-fifth of domestic demand. This year, China's rubber consumption is expected to increase by nearly 9% to 3.3 million tons, and the sales volume of automobiles in the same period is expected to increase by nearly 30%. We expect that the tight supply of rubber will continue until the wet weather will continue at least until the first quarter of next year. next year.

The increase in the price of natural rubber is beneficial to the production and sales of natural rubber. Sinochem International (13.89, 0.10, 0.73%), which is one of the natural rubber business, will benefit significantly. The company integrates planting, processing and marketing of natural rubber upstream. It is currently the largest and strongest rubber marketing service provider in China, and also the most competitive rubber resource organizer with international reputation. At present, the scale of rubber planted, processed and operated by the company is 1:4:9, and the monthly average rubber supply capacity is up to 40,000 tons, which accounts for more than 10% of the domestic market share. Currently, the rubber base production capacity has gradually entered the mature stage with rubber trees. Production will gradually be released.