Optimistic excess pressure remains on the outlook for the cement market in East China next year

In 2011, the overall market of the cement industry in East China was optimistic. It is expected that the annual results will be no less than this year. However, there are also challenges such as the concentration of new production capacity, the increase in raw fuel costs, and the increasing pressure on energy saving and emission reduction. Recently, China Cement Association President Lei Qianzhi told reporters.

2010 is undoubtedly the most powerful year for the East China Cement Industry. In the Spring Festival of 2010, the East China Cement Market experienced a traditional off-season with no losses and slight surpluses. From July onwards, the first energy-saving emission reduction work initiated by the Zhejiang market caused a huge gap in the supply of the cement market. The continuous rise in cement prices, followed by this round of rising tides affecting the entire cement industry in East China and its surrounding areas. The price per ton of cement in the East China market has risen from more than 200 yuan to more than 500 yuan, and the highest area in Shanghai has even reached 600 yuan, but it is still often worthwhile. Sold Out".

The best-selling market of this kind of force has allowed East China Cement prices, which have been falling for many years, to finally regain the feeling of being envied. The return of value allows enterprises to laugh and laugh all the time, and is full of “fantasy” for next year’s market. The madness of prices has surprised many people, but even more unexpected to cement companies is that the continuously high cement prices have been more easily accepted by the market. Li Fuyuan, general manager of Huaxin Cement Nantong, said that in the fourth quarter, the East China Cement Corporation made a fortune, and he was more pleased that the unprecedented price was even accepted by the customers, indicating that the rational return of cement prices has formed a consensus in society. , And let the cement companies have an illusion about the continued rise in prices of the cement industry next year.

The calendar immediately opened a new page in 2011. For the new year's East China Cement Market, whether or not it is still fashionable, cement companies that have tasted the sweetness in the fourth quarter are quite optimistic and believe that Haojing will still be in!

Recently, Zhang Xiaohua, chairman of Red Lion Cement, said in an interview with China Cement Network reporter that in the East China market in 2011—especially the Zhejiang market, profitability will not be worse than this year. He said that since Zhejiang Province and surrounding areas are driven by infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail, further increase in industrial concentration, and further continuation of energy conservation and emission reduction work, the good situation in the fourth quarter of 2010 will continue into the next year. He even stated that In the next 3-5 years, the cement industry in Zhejiang Province will be more optimistic.

The railway construction including high-speed rail will be the highlight of Zhejiang cement demand during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. According to the mid- and long-term plans for the construction of the railway network in Zhejiang Province, during the 11th and 12th five-year period, Zhejiang will invest 40 billion yuan to build a new 3,600-kilometer railway network. At present, there are up to 24 railway projects that have been built, planned and studied in Zhejiang. Among them, there are at least 9 inter-city high-speed railways. In addition to the Yongtaiwen Coastal High-speed Railway and Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway that were opened last year, there are seven high-speed rails in Zhejiang Province that are under construction and will soon be under construction.

In the Jiangsu market, building materials to the countryside and new rural construction will be the highlights of growth in the coming years. According to Nie Changlan, president of the Cement Association of Jiangsu Province, the cement production during the 11th Five-Year Plan period in Jiangsu Province increased at a rate of 10 million tons per year. In 2009, it was 145.7 million tons. By October this year, it had reached 145.38 million tons, accounting for the total amount of cement in the country. 8.51%, an increase of 6.66% over the same period of the previous year, with an estimated annual output of 155 million tons. By the large-scale projects such as the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, new rural construction, building materials to the countryside, and affordable housing construction, the demand for cement market in Jiangsu is still at a peak in the next two to three years, and next year will be the 12th and the fifth year, and a low-carbon economy. Energy-saving and emission-reduction are still the top priority, and it is expected to develop towards normalization. However, it is expected that after 2012, with the decline in demand, cement prices will fall.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period in Shanghai, and in the start-up of supporting construction projects such as international financial centers and international shipping centers, as well as Disney and other tertiary industry projects, the cement consumption market will rebound and the market demand will remain at around 20 million tons. At the same time, the construction of affordable housing and rail transportation will also greatly stimulate cement demand. In addition, the Shanghai cement industry has now established a quantitative growth and development, and has shifted to the mainstream development trend of “circular economy, green economy, and use of waste”.

However, in the industry generally optimistic about the 2011 East China cement industry market, there are also some people are cautious. Zhuge Peizhi, chairman of the Shanghai Cement Association, believes that the excellent situation in 2010 is not caused by endogenous power, but rather that it is “limited production, price adjustments, and turning losses into profits”, due to factors in the national energy-saving emission reduction policy, the East China Cement Industry Only then obtained a strong limited production effect, and then obtained price adjustment and profit. However, such powerful factors for the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction by the government may not continue to be implemented in the future. Whether enterprises in the industry can voluntarily control production capacity and control the relationship between supply and demand are challenges that will face in the future.

Zhou Huan, chief researcher of Huatai United Securities, also has reservations about the cement market next year. He told reporters that the situation in East China is generally optimistic about next year, but it depends on the extent to which the price of the cement industry fell in the off-season. He believes that next year the cement industry in East China has no doubt about the control of new production capacity, but lower prices in the off-season will affect the base number for next year. How the trend has to wait for the Spring Festival to be clear.