International Energy Newsletter: Singapore's FACTS Global Energy issued a forecast report on July 11, 2011 that Asian demand for petroleum products will grow by 584,000 barrels per day by 2030, and China will account for regional demand. 58% of the increase. Gas oil and gasoline will account for 39% and 20% of the regional growth, respectively.
It is expected that demand for petroleum products in Asia will increase from 26.6 million barrels/day in 2010 to 38.3 million barrels/day in 2030. In the same period, China’s oil demand is expected to increase by 6.8 million barrels per day.
Analysts pointed out that compared with developed countries, China’s per capita oil consumption is still relatively low. By the longer-term expectation of 2030, the demand for transportation fuels (ie gasoline, road diesel, and jet fuel) will grow strongly.
After the pause in 2008, oil demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region rebounded in the following two years, with year-on-year increases of 2.1% and 5.1% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
Analysts estimate that the economic growth of developing Asian economies (excluding Japan) rose from 5.9% in 2009 to around 9% in 2010. Although economic growth in the region is expected to remain strong, after a strong rebound in 2010, it is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2011, and a moderate slowdown is expected.
If oil prices rise to nearly $150/barrel recorded in mid-2008, some observers claim that 2011 will likely repeat another year of oil demand collapse and fall into the second-lowest recession. What worries people is that the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) may undermine the "geopolitical risk premium" that the global oil supply has re-intensified in the oil market.
FACTS's forecast for the latest increase in total oil demand in Asia in 2011 was reduced from 1.3 million barrels/day in 2010 to 900,000 barrels/day. In addition to the economic slowdown, rising oil prices will also have a negative impact on demand growth. However, the impact of the latter is to some extent cushioned in Asia. This is because the fuel prices in many countries are still funded by the government. It is not surprising that Asia will account for 52% of global oil demand growth in 2011. , while the year-on-year increase of 44% in 2010
It is expected that demand for petroleum products in Asia will increase from 26.6 million barrels/day in 2010 to 38.3 million barrels/day in 2030. In the same period, China’s oil demand is expected to increase by 6.8 million barrels per day.
Analysts pointed out that compared with developed countries, China’s per capita oil consumption is still relatively low. By the longer-term expectation of 2030, the demand for transportation fuels (ie gasoline, road diesel, and jet fuel) will grow strongly.
After the pause in 2008, oil demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region rebounded in the following two years, with year-on-year increases of 2.1% and 5.1% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
Analysts estimate that the economic growth of developing Asian economies (excluding Japan) rose from 5.9% in 2009 to around 9% in 2010. Although economic growth in the region is expected to remain strong, after a strong rebound in 2010, it is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2011, and a moderate slowdown is expected.
If oil prices rise to nearly $150/barrel recorded in mid-2008, some observers claim that 2011 will likely repeat another year of oil demand collapse and fall into the second-lowest recession. What worries people is that the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) may undermine the "geopolitical risk premium" that the global oil supply has re-intensified in the oil market.
FACTS's forecast for the latest increase in total oil demand in Asia in 2011 was reduced from 1.3 million barrels/day in 2010 to 900,000 barrels/day. In addition to the economic slowdown, rising oil prices will also have a negative impact on demand growth. However, the impact of the latter is to some extent cushioned in Asia. This is because the fuel prices in many countries are still funded by the government. It is not surprising that Asia will account for 52% of global oil demand growth in 2011. , while the year-on-year increase of 44% in 2010
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