The worst "electricity shortage" since 2004 is approaching.
International Energy Network News: East China Electricity Regulatory Commissioner Qiu Zhijian recently revealed in an interview with reporters that the peak time of electricity consumption in East China is approaching, the highest peak of four provinces and one city (Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Anhui Province, Shanghai City) The electricity gap is expected to reach 10 to 15 million kilowatts.
Compared with last year's balance between supply and demand, East China's electricity consumption gap has soared this year. It is estimated that the highest electricity load in East China will reach 198 million kilowatts this summer. On July 4, East China Power Grid unified call power load exceeded 168 million kilowatts, setting a record high.
However, even so, there are still power generation plants that have higher power generation efficiency and are forced to idle production capacity due to the limitation of power generation indicators.
The "12th Five-Year Plan" started to increase electricity consumption compared to last year's stable power supply situation. This year's "electricity shortage" is rooted in the combined results of multiple factors. Qiu Jijian analyzed that this year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The rapid start of all kinds of projects led to a sharp increase in electricity consumption. The productivity effect of the transformation of 4 trillion investment also began to manifest, resulting in hard growth in electricity use. In terms of power supply, the investment in power generation in the first half of the year decreased by a year-on-year, only 6% increase, and restrictions on thermal power also led to a reduction in supply. The skyrocketing price of thermal coal has led to losses in thermal power plants, affecting their enthusiasm for generating electricity.
“This year is the most intense power supply and demand situation in recent years. The total power gap may exceed the worst in history in 2004.†Shuaijun Qing, deputy general manager of the State Grid Corporation of China, predicted that only the 26 provinces in charge of the State Grid’s business scope The internal power gap will reach about 30 million kilowatts.
Shuai Junqing analyzed that the reasons for this lack of electricity were changed from the single factor of insufficient supply of coal in the past to the shortage of power coal supply and insufficient capacity for power generation in local areas, insufficient capacity for trans-regional power grid transmission, and other factors, and in the short term Difficult to change. In addition, extreme weather such as thunderstorms in summer and large-scale wind power access will also increase the risk of safe electricity production.
“Despite the power shortage, we have to find ways to maintain the overall balance of electricity use.†Qiu Zhijian, who is busy preparing for the semi-annual work conference, told reporters that in the short term, he chose to limit high-energy industrial power consumption and peak load shifting.
The electric power leads the whole body and the lack of electric power is being transmitted to all corners of society. A company engaged in the production of solar films is faced with two weeks of blackouts. The head of the company reluctantly stated: "Our production line can't be stopped without stopping."
State Grid previously said that in the East China provincial power companies will implement short-term real-time transactions between provinces, the use of differences in load characteristics among the provinces to carry out peak trade, strengthen the provinces surplus and mutual benefit.
The National Energy Administration issued a notice a few days ago, requesting PetroChina and Sinopec to ensure that Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces meet the peak summer electricity demand. According to the Energy Administration, following the supply of natural gas by PetroChina and Sinopec's two major energy giants, Jiangsu's six West-to-East gas-fired direct-fired gas-fired generating units have basically achieved full-load power generation, generating an increase of about 10 million kWh/day; Machine gas will also increase to 11.5 million cubic meters per day. The average operating time of each gas turbine can be increased to about 14 hours, and the power generation capacity can be increased by about 11 million kWh/day.
The addition of the two amounts to equivalent to an increase of 21 million kilowatt-hours of electricity supply per day in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, alleviating the local electricity consumption gap to some extent.
How to allocate power generation rights?
In order to solve the problem of power supply that has been plagued for many years, people in the industry have called for and hope that the national price department will adjust the prices of industrial and commercial electricity.
Behind this, it is the current stalemate caused by "market coal and government electricity."
Qiu Zhijian said that the cost of power generation should be effectively passed to end users and interact with end users. “Otherwise, the price of electricity will be squeezed between the generation end and the consumption end. The cost price of transforming primary energy into secondary energy is already very transparent, but the transfer of resource prices is not in place, and it is now a misleading account. "Qiu Zhijian said.
Insiders pointed out that the systematic price increase caused by rising electricity prices should be regulated by the national macro-control. Just like oil prices, electricity prices should also be marketized. “Government management is untenable, and all government-controlled industries will rise in price, such as medicine, real estate, and electricity. This is like an example. After grain is marketized, it will rise and fall. As long as the government controls, the price of electricity will always rise. The price of electricity will only go to the market and it will rise or fall."
“Deepening the reform of the power system requires top-level design. The problems we face are very clear to everyone. It is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem by relying on the only price increase method. There should be other methods,†said Qiu Zhijian.
Among them, the adoption of uniform distribution standards (ie power generation rights) for power plants with different power generation efficiency has been questioned by the industry. High-efficiency power plants face the embarrassing situation of low-efficiency power generation. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Third Power Generation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “the Waigaoqiao III Factoryâ€) is a low-energy-consumption, high-efficiency power generation enterprise recognized in the power industry. According to common sense, such companies should produce more and more electricity, but this is not the case.
Due to the restrictions on the amount of power generated by the government's relevant departments, there is a serious under-employment in Waigaoqiao No. 3 Plant. The plant's 2010 contract plans to generate 8 billion kWh of electricity, and on this basis, it will generate 5 billion kWh of electricity, which is no problem. Constrained by the limitation of power generation quotas, the Waigaoqiao Third Plant only used more than 60 percent of its production capacity last year, and nearly 40 percent of its production capacity was idle. It is understood that the power generation quota is equivalent to the power generation rights obtained by the power plant and how much power can be generated by how much generating power is obtained.
“Some old power plants are being dragged down by historical problems. They will soon close up without allocating their power generation quotas.†People in the industry reluctantly said.
According to calculations, the third plant of Waigaoqiao will generate more than 5 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, which will save 300,000 tons of coal, equivalent to nearly 300 million yuan. As of May this year, the country’s power generation capacity was 1 billion kilowatts, of which thermal power accounted for about 80% and coal consumption was 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion tons of standard coal. At present, the average installed power generation time in the country is 5000 hours, of which 1,000 hours are idle. Some have not obtained power generation rights, while others have no coal.
International Energy Network News: East China Electricity Regulatory Commissioner Qiu Zhijian recently revealed in an interview with reporters that the peak time of electricity consumption in East China is approaching, the highest peak of four provinces and one city (Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Anhui Province, Shanghai City) The electricity gap is expected to reach 10 to 15 million kilowatts.
Compared with last year's balance between supply and demand, East China's electricity consumption gap has soared this year. It is estimated that the highest electricity load in East China will reach 198 million kilowatts this summer. On July 4, East China Power Grid unified call power load exceeded 168 million kilowatts, setting a record high.
However, even so, there are still power generation plants that have higher power generation efficiency and are forced to idle production capacity due to the limitation of power generation indicators.
The "12th Five-Year Plan" started to increase electricity consumption compared to last year's stable power supply situation. This year's "electricity shortage" is rooted in the combined results of multiple factors. Qiu Jijian analyzed that this year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The rapid start of all kinds of projects led to a sharp increase in electricity consumption. The productivity effect of the transformation of 4 trillion investment also began to manifest, resulting in hard growth in electricity use. In terms of power supply, the investment in power generation in the first half of the year decreased by a year-on-year, only 6% increase, and restrictions on thermal power also led to a reduction in supply. The skyrocketing price of thermal coal has led to losses in thermal power plants, affecting their enthusiasm for generating electricity.
“This year is the most intense power supply and demand situation in recent years. The total power gap may exceed the worst in history in 2004.†Shuaijun Qing, deputy general manager of the State Grid Corporation of China, predicted that only the 26 provinces in charge of the State Grid’s business scope The internal power gap will reach about 30 million kilowatts.
Shuai Junqing analyzed that the reasons for this lack of electricity were changed from the single factor of insufficient supply of coal in the past to the shortage of power coal supply and insufficient capacity for power generation in local areas, insufficient capacity for trans-regional power grid transmission, and other factors, and in the short term Difficult to change. In addition, extreme weather such as thunderstorms in summer and large-scale wind power access will also increase the risk of safe electricity production.
“Despite the power shortage, we have to find ways to maintain the overall balance of electricity use.†Qiu Zhijian, who is busy preparing for the semi-annual work conference, told reporters that in the short term, he chose to limit high-energy industrial power consumption and peak load shifting.
The electric power leads the whole body and the lack of electric power is being transmitted to all corners of society. A company engaged in the production of solar films is faced with two weeks of blackouts. The head of the company reluctantly stated: "Our production line can't be stopped without stopping."
State Grid previously said that in the East China provincial power companies will implement short-term real-time transactions between provinces, the use of differences in load characteristics among the provinces to carry out peak trade, strengthen the provinces surplus and mutual benefit.
The National Energy Administration issued a notice a few days ago, requesting PetroChina and Sinopec to ensure that Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces meet the peak summer electricity demand. According to the Energy Administration, following the supply of natural gas by PetroChina and Sinopec's two major energy giants, Jiangsu's six West-to-East gas-fired direct-fired gas-fired generating units have basically achieved full-load power generation, generating an increase of about 10 million kWh/day; Machine gas will also increase to 11.5 million cubic meters per day. The average operating time of each gas turbine can be increased to about 14 hours, and the power generation capacity can be increased by about 11 million kWh/day.
The addition of the two amounts to equivalent to an increase of 21 million kilowatt-hours of electricity supply per day in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, alleviating the local electricity consumption gap to some extent.
How to allocate power generation rights?
In order to solve the problem of power supply that has been plagued for many years, people in the industry have called for and hope that the national price department will adjust the prices of industrial and commercial electricity.
Behind this, it is the current stalemate caused by "market coal and government electricity."
Qiu Zhijian said that the cost of power generation should be effectively passed to end users and interact with end users. “Otherwise, the price of electricity will be squeezed between the generation end and the consumption end. The cost price of transforming primary energy into secondary energy is already very transparent, but the transfer of resource prices is not in place, and it is now a misleading account. "Qiu Zhijian said.
Insiders pointed out that the systematic price increase caused by rising electricity prices should be regulated by the national macro-control. Just like oil prices, electricity prices should also be marketized. “Government management is untenable, and all government-controlled industries will rise in price, such as medicine, real estate, and electricity. This is like an example. After grain is marketized, it will rise and fall. As long as the government controls, the price of electricity will always rise. The price of electricity will only go to the market and it will rise or fall."
“Deepening the reform of the power system requires top-level design. The problems we face are very clear to everyone. It is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem by relying on the only price increase method. There should be other methods,†said Qiu Zhijian.
Among them, the adoption of uniform distribution standards (ie power generation rights) for power plants with different power generation efficiency has been questioned by the industry. High-efficiency power plants face the embarrassing situation of low-efficiency power generation. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Third Power Generation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “the Waigaoqiao III Factoryâ€) is a low-energy-consumption, high-efficiency power generation enterprise recognized in the power industry. According to common sense, such companies should produce more and more electricity, but this is not the case.
Due to the restrictions on the amount of power generated by the government's relevant departments, there is a serious under-employment in Waigaoqiao No. 3 Plant. The plant's 2010 contract plans to generate 8 billion kWh of electricity, and on this basis, it will generate 5 billion kWh of electricity, which is no problem. Constrained by the limitation of power generation quotas, the Waigaoqiao Third Plant only used more than 60 percent of its production capacity last year, and nearly 40 percent of its production capacity was idle. It is understood that the power generation quota is equivalent to the power generation rights obtained by the power plant and how much power can be generated by how much generating power is obtained.
“Some old power plants are being dragged down by historical problems. They will soon close up without allocating their power generation quotas.†People in the industry reluctantly said.
According to calculations, the third plant of Waigaoqiao will generate more than 5 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, which will save 300,000 tons of coal, equivalent to nearly 300 million yuan. As of May this year, the country’s power generation capacity was 1 billion kilowatts, of which thermal power accounted for about 80% and coal consumption was 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion tons of standard coal. At present, the average installed power generation time in the country is 5000 hours, of which 1,000 hours are idle. Some have not obtained power generation rights, while others have no coal.
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