According to the relevant index report released recently by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation’s Steel Logistics Committee, the domestic steel industry's PMI index fell to 49.2% in November, which is down 3.5% from the previous month, and it has returned to the contraction range again. The current contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic steel market is still outstanding, and the upward trend is facing resistance. At present, the production of the domestic steel industry is still active. The willingness of steel mills to fight for losses by expanding production is strong. In the later period, domestic steel production capacity may be further released. In November, the steel industry's production index was 50.1%, which is still in the expansion range. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the country in mid-November was 1,951,100 tons, which fell by 0.25% in the first half of November but remained at the level of 1.95 million tons. With the completion of overhaul of large-scale steel mills, the total number of overhauled blast furnaces has reached a new low.
At the same time, the characteristics of off-season consumption in the steel market appear. In November, the new order index for the steel industry was 46.5%, down 8.9 percentage points from the previous month. This index has continuously risen in the past three months and returned to expansion in October. However, it has fallen back sharply to the contraction range in November, indicating that the current steel industry has entered the traditional off-season and the demand growth has been weak. In November, the new export order index also returned to the contraction range, indicating that China's steel exports experienced a high level in September and October and faced a contraction risk in the later period.
According to the analysis of the index report, the iron and steel industry has turned a profit in October, but the profit of key steel companies is only 300 million yuan, and the loss is 26%. The overall situation is still quite severe. In the case of a “shuffle†in the steel trade market and a reduction in the number of steel dealers, steel companies are under greater pressure both in terms of contract organization and funds.
In the following December, both the end of the fourth quarter and the end of the year, the market will usher in the peak of repayment. Many steel traders faced great repayment pressure under difficult operating conditions throughout the year. Recently, the number of disputes between banks and steel trade has increased, and there is a lack of mutual trust in the market. It is expected that the overall financial status of the steel market in December may be tight, and the price trend of steel products will be based on shocks.
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