Wu Bolin: 2013, focus on transformation and upgrading

Overall industry performance in 2012

First of all, Wu Bolin introduced the operation of the machine tool industry in 2012 to the CNC machine tool market reporters in conjunction with the association's 214 key contact companies.

From January to October, the total industrial output value of the association's key enterprises was 80 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18%; the sales value of industrial products was 77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; the sales revenue of finished products was 79.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; The profit was 3.5 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year; the new orders were 30.2 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year; the orders at the end of October were 3.11 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year; the finished goods inventory at the end of September was 15.3 billion yuan. , an increase of 32% year-on-year. “Everyone can see that the data we are focusing on is a comprehensive decline,” Wu Bolin said.

Import side. From January to October, machine tools imported US$17 billion, up 2% year-on-year, of which metal processing machine imports were US$11.5 billion, up 5.6% year-on-year. Wu Bolin stressed: "The 5.6% of import growth is growing on a very high basis in 2011. It shows that our domestic market demand has not decreased, and our demand level is improving. In particular, our gold cutting machine tools have grown 8 %, this is what our industry needs to think about."

Export side. From January to October, the export of machine tools reached US$7.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Among them, Jinqiu machine tools exported US$1.56 billion, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and the export of forming machine tools reached US$700 million, an increase of 8%. “It can be seen that although our export volume is low, it has maintained a double-digit increase, indicating that our company is still going out and actively exploring the market.”

Three major contradictions in the industry

As far as the industry as a whole is concerned, Wu Bolin admits that after ten years of rapid development, the industrial scale of China's machine tool tools has ranked first in the world, but the structural level of products is low, still at the low end of the global industrial chain, with scale. The expansion-oriented development model will face challenges. He pointed out that the main contradiction at this stage is the contradiction between the accelerated upgrading of the domestic demand structure and the incompatibility of the industry supply. Mainly in the following three aspects:

1. Unbalanced production capacity structure. The performance is three points: First, the production capacity of our low-end products is expanding rapidly; second, the supply capacity and demand structure are asymmetric; thirdly, the numerical control system, functional components and the host are out of balance.

2. Product homogenization features are obvious. It is also manifested in three aspects: First, the function of the machine tool, the vast majority of the production of the industry is a general-purpose machine tool, the proportion of special machine tools and special machine tools is low, often the same model is widely used in various fields of equipment manufacturing; According to the technical level and performance quality, in 2011, the whole industry produced about 270,000 CNC machine tools, and the proportion of high-end machine tools was less than 5%. Third, from the perspective of marketing service methods, most enterprises are still in the stage of simply selling equipment, to users. Process research is not in-depth and lacks the ability to provide users with comprehensive solutions. The consequence of homogenization is that companies are struggling with price wars, causing serious damage to the industry.

3. The competitiveness of mid- to high-end products is weak. It is reflected in the following two aspects: one is that the deep-level technology of high-end products is not well understood; the other is that the industrialization of our innovation results is a prominent weak link.

Five major problems facing enterprises

At the time when many companies fell into a trough in 2012, the Machine Tool Association has been actively visiting the survey. In the interview, Wu Berlin also summed up the five major problems facing the current enterprise to the reporters of the CNC machine tool market:

1. The level of production and sales continued to fall. 70% of enterprises' industrial output value and sales revenue showed a year-on-year decline and the decline was generally double-digit, with the largest drop even exceeding 50%.

2. New orders are significantly reduced. New orders for enterprises fell by an average of 36% year-on-year, and orders on orders fell by 23% year-on-year. More than 80% of new orders for enterprises have been reduced to varying degrees. Only less than 20% of new orders were flat or slightly increased.

3. The capital occupation has risen sharply. The increase in finished goods inventory and accounts receivable led to a significant increase in corporate capital occupation. More than 20% of the company's finished goods inventory is close to or exceeds 100%. Most of the company's accounts receivable exceeded 70% year-on-year. Coupled with the proliferation of acceptance bills, the company's cash flow is very tight.

4. Manufacturing resources are largely idle. 80% of enterprises are generally underemployed, manufacturing resources are idle in different degrees, and manufacturing resources of low-end, general-purpose, and high-volume products are idle. Signs of a decline in workers’ income and loss of personnel began to appear.

5. The contradiction between supply and demand has become more prominent. In the research, from the perspective of industry enterprises and key users, the two aspects of the contradiction between supply and demand in the field of machine tool industry in China are further felt. At the level of quantity, performance is oversupply, and at the qualitative level, it is in short supply. On the one hand, the manufacturing resources for high-volume, general-purpose products for medium and low-end products are largely idle; on the other hand, the demand for high-end machine tools and services in key user areas has to continue to rely on imports.

Transformation and upgrading has become an inevitable choice

Faced with these problems in the industry and enterprises, Wu Bolin summarized to the CNC machine tool market reporter: "To solve the main contradiction in the industry, there is only one way out, that is, transformation and upgrading, as soon as possible to improve the market competitiveness of high-end products in the industry, adapt The trend of national economic development and market changes. "How do you start to transform and upgrade?" In the face of reporters' questions, Wu Bolin gave three main points:

1. Transformation and upgrading is an inevitable choice for sustainable development. The growth rate of the current stage of the Chinese economy has slowed down, and to some extent, the Chinese government has exchanged low growth for the active strategic choice of economic transformation and upgrading. This change is necessary and healthy. Correspondingly, China's machine tool industry will also enter a new stage of historical development. The salient features of the new phase will be characterized by rational growth rate and comprehensive transformation and upgrading. The focus of competition will also change from scale growth to development mode. This is not only our subjective desire, but also the objective requirement for achieving sustainable development. . Therefore, we must completely abandon the expectation of the government to launch strong economic stimulus measures, and give up the desire for a strong rebound in demand in the low-end market. Under the current situation, the whole industry needs a new round of ideological emancipation and change of ideas. Effectively change the way we think and behave. We must completely get rid of the path dependence on the scale of development and expansion, free ourselves from the impetuousness of scale growth, and resolve to change the mode of development. We must rely on technological progress and management upgrades, and improve the quality of workers to embark on the path of transformation and upgrading. Embark on the path of sustainable development.

2. Transformation and upgrading is a long and arduous process. The transformation and upgrading of the industry has actually been mentioned for many years, but in fact, compared with the rapid growth of the industry demand scale, the transformation and upgrading effect of the industry is obviously not good. There are many reasons for this, but the main ones are two. First, the motivation for transformation and upgrading is insufficient. Before the market demand continued to be hot, everyone was busy dealing with the market and did not focus on it. Second, transformation and upgrading is not a simple matter. It is impossible to achieve results without major determination and without paying all attention and major resources. Transformation and upgrading is also a long-term lonely process. We must get rid of impetuousness and abandon our quick successes and high profits. Any goal that aims to achieve transformation by taking shortcuts is self-deception. The practice of the industry has repeatedly proved that the fast-tracking road will not work. The necessary courses cannot be streamlined. The necessary links cannot be omitted. The key difficulty is that they cannot be bypassed. The transformation and upgrading requires us to go back and supplement the necessary courses. It is impossible to expect enterprises in the whole industry to achieve the same transformation and upgrading. The transformation and upgrading will inevitably be accompanied by the differentiation and restructuring of the industry. The process of survival of the fittest is a more intense process. The focus of competition is on transforming the development mode. Who will turn faster? Whoever turns to be thorough, who will gain the opportunity to compete, is cold and cruel, but it is an objective law that must be accepted.

3. Transformation and upgrading is a process of continuous innovation. There is no ready-made model for the transformation and upgrading of the industry to follow and apply, and it is impossible to expect industry enterprises to achieve transformation and upgrading according to a certain mode. The development stages of industrial enterprises are different. The basic conditions of enterprises vary widely. The main contradictions and comparative advantages of enterprises have different characteristics. Therefore, it is reasonable to go out of the road of transformation and upgrading. We cannot expect many enterprises to achieve transformation and upgrading in accordance with the so-called unified normative path, but it does not prevent enterprises of all types of conditions from seeking truth from facts to grasp their comparative advantages and reasonably determine their own market positioning and explore. Out of the actual transformation path of upgrading. Thereby forming an innovation situation and a differentiated development pattern across the industry. In the past ten years of development in the industry, there are many problems that need to be solved urgently. One of them is that most enterprises are pursuing bigger and stronger, and their negative effects have led to the industry's low level and homogenization competition. This is a lesson we need to learn in the transformation and upgrading.

Medium and long-term development expectations are still positive and optimistic

Although we are experiencing the pain of industry transformation, Wu Berlin also expressed a positive and optimistic attitude through the CNC machine tool market network when it talked about the medium and long-term development expectations of the industry. He analyzed that there are roughly three reasons for this:

First of all, China's long-term economic fundamentals have not changed. China's industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization are still far from complete. There is still a huge space for the sustainable development of China's economy, and it will inevitably provide sustained market demand for the machine tool industry.

Secondly, the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the new leadership of the central government frequently released the reform signals and clearly expressed their determination and consensus. Moreover, it also clearly expressed the importance attached to the industry, which will inevitably provide a good external development environment for the machine tool industry.

Finally, after years of development, especially after nearly ten years of continuous high-speed development, the industry has become “not the same as before”, the overall strength has been significantly enhanced, and the overall quality has improved significantly. It has already had the necessary foundation for implementing comprehensive transformation and upgrading. As long as we make unremitting efforts, we will be able to embark on a sustainable development path.