Abstract From January to November this year, the machinery industry achieved a slow recovery, moderate growth, and steady development. According to the China Machinery Industry Federation, the economic operation speed of the machinery industry in 2013 will be higher than that in 2012. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be higher than 12%, and the increase in profit is expected...
From January to November this year, the machinery industry achieved a slow recovery, moderate growth, and steady development. According to the China Machinery Industry Federation, the economic operation speed of the machinery industry in 2013 will be higher than that in 2012. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be higher than 12%, the increase in profit is expected to be greater than the increase in production and sales, and the increase in export earnings is expected to be around 5%. In 2014, the machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain a steady development trend. The mechanical industry grew steadily in the first 11 months
In the fourth quarter, the growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry has been higher than the national industrial growth rate for three consecutive months. From January to November, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry was 10.7%, which was higher than the national industry by one hundred points, of which 13.9% in November, 3.9 percentage points higher than the national industry.
From January to November, among the 64 major machinery industry products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 40 kinds of products with a year-on-year increase in output, accounting for 52.5%; 24 products with a year-on-year decline in output, accounting for 37.5%. .
The price index on mechanical products is still low. Since the beginning of this year, the price index of the machinery industry has continued the downward trend of last year. From January 2012 to November this year, the mechanical industry's monthly price index and cumulative price index have been below 100% for 22 consecutive months. In November, the mechanical industry price index was 98.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October; from January to November, it was 98.6%, which was the same as January-October.
Accumulated investment growth rate stabilized and fluctuated greatly in November. From January to November, the machinery industry completed a fixed asset investment of 3.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.45%, a slight decrease of 0.29 percentage points from January to October (17.74%), showing a steady trend. In November, investment in machinery industry increased by 15.85%, which was 10.47 percentage points lower than the increase in October (26.32%).
The growth rate of import and export is still lower than that of national foreign trade. From January to October, the machinery industry achieved a total import and export value of 550 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.88% over the same period of last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from January to September. Compared with the national foreign trade, the growth rate of import and export of machinery industry from January to October was 1.88%, which was lower than the national foreign trade of 5.72 percentage points. Among them, the export growth rate was 4.62%, which was lower than the national foreign trade 3.18%; the import growth rate decreased by 1.34%, which was lower than the national foreign trade of 8.64 percentage points.
Affected by the decline in imports, the trade surplus continued to expand. From January to October, the cumulative trade surplus of the machinery industry was US$59.36 billion (previous year: US$53.99 billion), and the surplus grew rapidly. Among them, agricultural machinery, engineering, civil engineering, petrochemical, heavy-duty, electrician, mechanical basic parts and Other seven industries had a total surplus of 97.821 billion US dollars, internal combustion engine, instrumentation, heavy-duty, food packaging machinery, automobiles, and other six industries with a total deficit of 38.463 billion US dollars. .
The machinery industry will maintain a stable main tone next year
The China Machinery Industry Federation predicts that the overall demand for the machinery industry will remain tight in 2014, and the industry's development will maintain the "stable" main tone.
From the perspective of the economic environment, in 2014, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and continue to adjust the industrial structure by using the mechanism. The operation of the machinery industry will still face a weak domestic and foreign demand, and the pressure on the growth of the industry is still very large. However, in terms of the continuity and stability of the policy, the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2014 still has the basic conditions for maintaining overall stability, and the overall trend will continue in 2013. At the same time, industrialization, informationization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization will be further promoted, creating new consumption and investment needs and expanding international and domestic market space.
From the perspective of the machinery industry itself, the favorable and unfavorable factors affecting its development coexist.
Favorable factors: The financial expenses and the increase in interest expenses have dropped significantly, and the macro environment of the enterprise has improved, which is beneficial to enterprises to control financial costs. Although the increase in accounts receivable is still greater than the increase in production and sales over the same period, it has stopped rising and stabilized. This shows that although the recovery of goods is still difficult, the risk of excessive growth is being controlled. The increase in inventory (especially in the finished goods inventory) is less than the increase in production and sales over the same period, which has dropped to a lower level, indicating that “destocking†has achieved significant results. This has created conditions for the recovery of the machinery industry in the future.
Unfavorable factors: Domestic demand is still insufficient. This year's product price index has been sluggish. Although the cumulative orders of key contact enterprises increased from January to October, the growth rate was only 8.58%, indicating that the domestic demand market rebounded weakly. The export situation is not optimistic, and the overall situation is still weak. The total export growth in January-October was only 4.62%. Affected by the weakening of investment pulling, heavy industry, engineering, machine tools and other industries will still face a situation in which market demand is not prosperous, and the pattern driven by the automobile industry has not changed.
China National Machinery Association predicts that in 2014, the sub-sectors of conventional power generation equipment, metallurgical mining equipment, heavy machinery, and ordinary machine tools in the machinery industry will continue to be in a depressed state; demand for high-end machine tools, robots and automatic production lines will rise; the construction machinery market will Some warmer, gradually returning to normal from the ups and downs; the growth rate of production and sales of automobiles and agricultural machinery will gradually decline, but the market of large-scale high-end agricultural machinery products will continue to be more prosperous.
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