Sustained supply of continuous methanol storage space

Upstream:

The downstream purchase intention of coal is still sluggish, and coal mines have difficulties in shipping. Despite adopting various preferential production, price, and price policies, the downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods is still low, and it is difficult to form favorable conditions in the short term.

Spot:

The local import supply in East China/South China will continue to remain at a low level, and the spot price will be supported. However, local domestic production is sufficient, and the domestic import price differential may increase. With the East China callback, Lunan and the port arbitrage space narrowed, there is no obvious positive stimulus in the short term, the need to pay attention to Ningbo large terminal picking situation; North China supply situation is tight, the short-term is still more optimistic. Based on the overhaul of some plants in the northwestern region, combined with the recovery plan for large-scale olefin enterprises at the beginning of the month, the short-term trend of the area is firm and there is still a possibility of upward adjustment in some areas.

Downstream:

Formaldehyde: In view of the continuous rise in raw material methanol prices, some of the formaldehyde sellers are willing to price, but the board makers have a clear feeling of resistance, pushing up prices is relatively weak. At present, the raw material prices have gradually stabilized, and the local market will be downgraded due to the downstream constraints.

Dimethyl ether: domestic ether market inventory pressure, enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is not in place, some manufacturers temporarily suspended due to environmental inspection devices, the short-term market may be slightly lower.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market continues to operate smoothly. At present, some manufacturers maintain low-load operation, and the supply in some regions is relatively tight. Affected by the lower overall operating rate, the demand capacity is limited, the market takes a slow pace, and the trading atmosphere is slightly flat. The current acetic acid market is affected by the rising of raw materials, and the ex-factory price is firm. In the downstream market, due to poor terminal demand and weak operation willingness, the market entered a stalemate situation, and it is expected that the pattern of weak consolidation will continue in the short term.

DMF: Difficult downstream demand has constrained the rise of the DMF market, and the firmness of raw material methanol is the only positive for the DMF market. The shipment speed is slow, and the manufacturer's equipment operates stably. The load varies from 50% to 80%, and the inventory pressure is high.

trend analysis:

About 3.2 million tons of equipment in the northwest are planned and overhauled, and most businesses are more reluctant to sell. In the middle and early part of the port area, it is expected that the import volume will remain low, and inventory will hardly increase significantly in the short term. The rise in freight rates and the high temperatures in the summer have caused a slight impact on capacity, which has also supported local prices. In the context of favorable supply of the supply side, the phenomenon of local pull-up is still not ruled out in the short term.

Operation suggestion:

Methanol 1309 can maintain long ideas around 2740.