In 81-96 AD, Christians refused to worship the Roman emperors and were regarded as Roman public enemies. At the same time, the interior of the church began to split. Facing the exclusion of internal and external, the devout believers were full of fear and prompted the church to God repented and comforted the church to death and loyalty. Finally, in the year 96, John wrote the last volume of the Bible, called Revelation, which described God's ultimate judgment on mankind.
After 20 centuries, 11 PV entrepreneurs jointly wrote a letter, hoping that the country can suspend its policy of one-size-fits-all for PV, and hope to breathe through this violent transition from joy and sorrow.
It is quite coincidental that among the seven angels describing the Last Judgment in Revelation, the archangels, the two angels, and the three angels all have the special effects of intense burning, as if this intense solar energy can travel through time and space. The last big leap forward in photovoltaics announced the death.
If we look back at these five years, let go of all the subjective emotions to examine each of these links, and observe every aspect of industrial development, leap forward to fiscal tightening, and perhaps learn from it to develop the next 5 of the photovoltaic industry. year.
Unpredictable industry fluctuations
Anyone who has been exposed to industrial engineering should know that a classic term in the journalistic discipline is called the bullwhip effect, that is, in the process of order production, if the customer orders generate a little fluctuation on the delivery side, then the reaction is in the industrial chain. It will cause a great shock, and the closer to the upstream, the greater the fluctuation.
This bullwhip effect is particularly serious in the photovoltaic industry. First of all, from the perspective of the market, the global photovoltaic industry has experienced market rotation in just a few years, and the terminal market has gradually migrated from Europe and the United States to China and India. At the same time, the policy is like a market shackle, firmly targeting the PV market to the low return on investment. Therefore, the PV industry has a very interesting phenomenon. In 2014, everyone was paying attention to the MIP policy. In the US ITX policy, starting from 2015, everyone will pay close attention to state subsidies and roads.
Secondly, from the perspective of supply chain, the PV industry chain is too long and too large. At the same time, as an emerging industry, it still has to accept the capacity problems brought by many industrial links. From the perspective of the main industrial chain, the photovoltaic industry involves from metal silicon to polysilicon materials, from silicon materials to silicon rods/silicon ingots, from square rods to slicing, and then from silicon wafers to battery assemblies, from component inverters to combiners. Wait until the entire industrial cycle of the power station, and each processing link has derived more branches, such as graphite materials, carbon, carbon, germanium, silver paste, chemicals, plastic film, aluminum frame, glass, backboard, brackets, etc. Wait. The general standard order is at least one and a half months from the silicon material to the component. However, the general situation is that because the demand cycle of the order is extremely irregular, it often presents a very strong off-season feature, thus causing In the off-season, manufacturers have a difficult situation in the peak season and the hard-to-find components. I remember that in the past two years, A and C companies have experienced the phenomenon of short-selling in October and out-of-stock in February, and the resulting whole industry chain delivery is generally required. In 2-3 months, this is still the case that some companies have made inventory in advance. At the same time, in the branch industry chain, the core supply capacity is often held in the hands of a very small number of enterprises. For example, silver paste has been monopolized by H manufacturers and D manufacturers, up to S manufacturers, and their upstream silver powder is Mastered in the hands of Japanese and American manufacturers, and the quartz sand required for cockroaches, it is almost completely in the hands of Y manufacturers. Therefore, any problem in the supply chain may lead to industry-wide tensions, such as the explosion of the Japanese silver powder factory in the previous two years, and the tight graphite in 2017, which will greatly affect the delivery of the whole industry in the peak season.
If the above situation is combined with the impact of industrial relocation, the uncertainty will be even more profound. In recent years, the localization of polysilicon production capacity and single polycrystalline production capacity have greatly shaken the entire industrial chain. It is said that the production of 100,000 tons of polysilicon in Xinjiang has been regarded as a blockbuster. Now, it is said that 10GW and 20GW of silicon wafers and batteries will expand. It is like the US-Soviet arms race in the 1970s. .
Finally, from the perspective of technological development, every technological innovation can bring about exponential growth of production capacity, whether it is the breakthrough of cold hydrogenation technology of polysilicon material, the breakthrough of single crystal RCZ and large-scale thermal field technology, and the renewal of polysilicon furnace. A series of innovations and bottlenecks, such as replacement, diamond thread technology breakthrough, double-track silk screen printing, fast string welding, etc., can greatly increase the production capacity of the existing fixed assets, thus completing the increment. At the same time, the in-depth development of equipment manufacturers is superimposed, and the equipment with larger capacity, faster efficiency and cheaper price is continuously updated and iterated, thus completing the upgrade brought by the replacement capacity, and the incremental production capacity continues to be icing on the cake. In the past two years, the boss of the equipment manufacturer of C surnamed a dozen college students of key universities. They were not used to develop equipment, but all sent out to sell, and all of them have become middle-level cadres of enterprises. This history is also a good story.
Lost the credit of "letter"
Since 2013, the relationship between the photovoltaic industry and the financial industry is like Zhang Wuji and Xiao Zhao who fell into the deep pit in "The Heaven and the Dragon Slayer". It has always been a mystery, so that Zhang Wuji’s skill is greatly increased when he comes out of the hole. It was puzzling to go to Persia soon after the show.
From the early Suntech and Saiwei bankruptcy, the banking industry is like Zhou Botong who met Qi Gu, who is far away from photovoltaics. Even the legendary bank prefers to lend to Lanzhou Ramen and Shaxian snacks, and refuses to lend to photovoltaic companies. The lack of industry credibility is not only reflected in liquidity, but will ultimately be reflected in the cost of PV companies. In 2014, if PV companies are looking for bank financing, most of them will not see the PV industry doing business. The cost of capital that can be made is also above the benchmark interest rate by 50 or more. Even if it can be done, the margin of the L/C bank must be 3 to 4. Cheng, the capital exposure that enterprises can get is extremely limited. In general, only one or two banks are willing to cooperate. Many times, in order to supplement liquidity, large shareholders are required to pledge their shares, and the pledge rate is generally not more than 40%, and the interest rate has reached 8 %the above.
However, the development of the industry in 2015 suddenly became quite different. The national M2 currency increased, the whole society leveraged the release of funds, and the continuous reduction of interest rates, so that the bank took the money to find the target everywhere. I remember that a bank colleague was reminded for a long time. After lending, she decided to resign her stocks. She said that the bank has started to make the worst travel loans. With tickets and hotel reservations, it can lend 500,000 without pledge. At this point, the bank began to visit various companies. There was a bank loan to a state-owned silicon material factory. Their cost was already higher than the current selling price, and they actually got 300 million loans. In this environment, PV companies have labeled the “National Key Support Industries†and “Strategic Emerging Industriesâ€. The financing has been carried out from the benchmark interest rate of 30 to 20 to 10, and the ordinary credits have just been After the completion of the financial leasing manufacturers came to talk about cooperation, the financial leasing manufacturers talked about the power plant asset securitization. It can be said that China's photovoltaic industry can have such a large capacity today, and it has an extremely strong hidden relationship with the release of the whole society three years ago. The company has received such low-cost funds, as if it had airborne all over the world that year. Chinese tourists bought all the rice cookers and toilet lids in Japan, which has given PV companies a serious illusion: as if they bought the latest PV equipment, they have completed the supply side reform of PV.
Lobbying like a politician, attracting investment like a venture capital
As early as 267 BC, before the Revelation, businessman Lu Buwei founded the idiom "Qi Ke can live" after seeing a strange person. He returned home and asked his father "How many times can we make a profit?" "Selling jewelry several times?" Answered a hundred times, "Which assisted a king to profit several times?" Answer countless times. Since then, the "politicized" power has been used as the best risk-free arbitrage futures variety on the market, becoming "futures can live." In the real estate, shipping, and insurance industries, there are already very good policies and systems for political and business operations. How to protect the socialist wool while at the same time, it has become a must-have skill for the majority of road masters.
Starting from 2013-2014, China's PV market has begun to exert its strength. The price of roads and electricity issued by the state is simply a fat cake for all major PV manufacturers – just take a bite to get fat. Under the stimulus of the policy, a new occupation “running road†emerged first, and then a variety of photovoltaic enterprises emerged. Unheard-known enterprises ran to do photovoltaic, as well as textile cross-border, doing cross-border The road passengers still have a lot of public relations resources in their hands. When the most popular, the amount of money allocated by a small company's road passengers is more than three times that of Huawei's regional sales manager. However, the investment is not necessarily It means that there are gains, companies often use a lot of resources to get small roads, but the actual distribution of the roads is often unexpected. Those who have had the privilege of participating in the 2016 Shanghai Photovoltaic Exhibition should not forget that many people came up and asked if there were any roads or power stations to buy. If you ask what to do when you buy a power station, the uncertainty is so high, the answer must be To be packaged and listed later.
During this period of time, the government did not seem to be idle. The pressure of GDP has been distributed to every mayor and county head. These grassroots cadres are making great efforts and reluctant to work. They hope that when the production capacity of traditional industries gradually withdraws, they can embrace strategic new industries. When they come to the local investment, they are pinning their hopes of stimulating GDP on these companies to become bigger and stronger, and they also hope to find a place for employees laid off in traditional industries. Therefore, PV companies are like the life-saving straw of the local government. Hold it in your hand. However, they did not know that it was the unanimous efforts of the China Merchants Bureau that led to a three-year PV leap forward, which allowed the emerging industry to enter the traditional industry.
The author Zweig once commented on Marie Antoinette of France. "She was too young at the time, and she didn't know all the gifts that fate gave her. She had already marked the price in the dark."
Winter is coming, is it the last madness?
From the beginning of the domestic market, the huge financial subsidy gap is like a sword of Damocles, hanging on the top of every PV person. In the American drama "Game of Thrones", the guardian of the North has always stood by himself. The belief that the winter is approaching, and when the ghosts are really assembled outside the country to prepare to break through the human continent, the Queen of Westeros has used the last wildfire to push the struggle between human powers to a climax.
Regardless of the job position, as long as it is a PV person, you must know what 630 means. The policy hopes to guide the healthy and orderly development of the entire industry through the subsidy reduction of time nodes. However, the market is like the reverse logic of the stock market on the "good fortune is good", just the capacity and installed capacity that should be released in the future, the overdraft in advance, the financial gap has not been alleviated, but I want to come to the previous one. The agent Huiren Shenbao, tonic the body that has been hollowed out.
In fact, the forecast of capacity growth is not difficult. Looking at the development of the global photovoltaic industry, the photovoltaic production capacity and the local market cost always show a “siphon†effect, that is, when the photovoltaic electricity cost reaches the cost line of a certain market, There will be a wave of explosive growth, and at the same time the cost of the explosion will decline, so that the cost quickly crosses the regional cost line until the market is saturated.
The formulation of such policies is not without precedent. When our country's exchange rate system and the development of real estate and industrial parks, there is a crawling and peg system. When applied to the photovoltaic industry, the subsidized price can be reduced with the manufacturing cost. To make a continuous cycle of rolling subsidies or even bidding subsidies, to ensure that the manufacturing industry to obtain the current level of technology profits, but also to limit new into the production capacity, thereby promoting the market to climb a small step.
The impact of the New Deal?
The new policy is actually so cruel to all PV practitioners, and it is impossible to promote several unique situations. After all, with the bones of the Chinese people, as long as the cash cost can be earned, once the industry recovers, there will be a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises. Capacity release. Then, is the most influential business difficult for the company, or laid-off workers?
The author believes that it is ecological. Looking at the entire manufacturing industry chain in China, it is difficult to find an industry chain that covers such a comprehensive and dynamic industry. For example, the entire photovoltaic system has been covered from the former “two endsâ€. The whole industry chain of the terminal has a lot of technological innovations in the whole industrial chain. From the supply side of the original auxiliary materials, the domestic manufacturers have broken many process technologies of raw and auxiliary materials that are monopolized by foreign countries; from the technology of the main industrial chain, silicon The advancement of domestic technology in films, batteries and components has squeezed out most foreign friends. Now only First Solar's financial situation is still acceptable, and it is still in the differentiated film industry; from the perspective of core equipment, from the early stage 90% of the foreign manufacturers monopolize the photovoltaic manufacturing market to 10-20% today, and domestic equipment manufacturers have made an indelible contribution to the development of the photovoltaic industry. However, all of this depends on the capital and talent pooling effect of the photovoltaic industry. It is because these equipment development companies have excess returns that they can put so much resources into research and development, so that the core equipment localization process is so fast. To put it bluntly, where is the money, where is the enthusiasm for technology, and the open ecology is likely to lose its vitality because of this outage, and the business is still difficult, so talk about technology and R&D, and downgrade As for the expectations of the policy, it is difficult for some people to stand up and invest large amounts of money in the future to make drastic changes to the technology.
Conclusion
Nature recently published a 25-year ecological population study that Eddie's butterfly usually lays on spring glaze because their larvae feed on it. When the Nevada pastures introduced psyllium from Europe, the butterflies tend to lay eggs on the more fertile one. In the year when the land use changed and the plantains disappeared, although the spring glaze was still there, the Edith butterfly was extinct.
    When the environment is invaded by luxury, and then checked by luxury, should we blame the changes in the environment? Or should we reflect on the failure to adapt to this fast-changing world?
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