Collapsed mahogany furniture: a broken sample of hot money "crazy hype"

"Now red rosewood is 150 pieces per kilogram, this chair is about 40 kilograms, and the total price is 6000 pieces." The boss told the inquirer. Thick dust shows that these mahogany furniture has not been interested for a long time, and a few years ago, there was still a lot of voices here, and the millions of golden nanmu beds are almost not bargaining.

The crazy case that the reporter interviewed was that a boss doing iron ore business bought more than 5 million yuan of mahogany furniture. The layman's reason for not having played mahogany is straightforward and simple, "Have value! I haven't heard of it, mahogany furniture has appreciated by 20% every year, and it has risen several times in the past two years."

"Now the price has fallen back to 10 years ago. Resource-based products are all rising in price. The high platform of mahogany furniture dives and traps many people. Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian materials hoarders, more than 80% are going bankrupt." One The Fujian boss in Zhangjiagang engaged in timber imports told the reporter.

In just a few years, the mahogany furniture has shrunk from the sky-high price bubble to the plunge, causing a large number of speculators to lose their money. This "crazy hype" phenomenon reminds many people of the once-popular gentleman's orchid, stamps, orchids, and Pu'er tea ...

The burst of the mahogany bubble

Before 2005, the price of mahogany furniture increased only moderately with an annual increase of about 20%. Since 2005, the prices of various mahogany raw materials have risen to varying degrees. Among them, red leaf sandalwood has skyrocketed from 150,000 yuan per ton to 750,000 yuan in just two years, and Vietnam Huanghua pear has increased from 200,000 per ton. The yuan rose to 1.2 million yuan.

A person in charge of the long-term mahogany business of Jiangsu Foreign Trade Light Industry Import and Export Company told reporters that according to the basic laws of the market, the annual value of mahogany is between 15% and 25%, which is relatively normal. Before 2005, it was basically such a gentle ascending channel.

But when the market is crazy, the concept of value preservation and appreciation is frantically speculated. A mahogany furniture manufacturer in Guangdong once publicized the investment value of Huanghualimu in Beijing, Hong Kong, Nanjing and other places, saying that 1 kg of Huanghualimu can be exchanged for 40 grams of gold, so as to collect old Huanghuali wood, and claimed whether it was a rolling pin or Lame stools, as long as they are made of Huanghualimu, can be negotiated and exchanged.

A manager of a mahogany furniture factory in Suzhou High-tech Zone told reporters that with the irrational increase in prices, the ownership of mahogany furniture has become a symbol of identity and status. Not only individual investors have thrown away millions of dollars in rosewood, some financial institutions, large companies, and even the government Officials also joined. Two years ago, some officials came to Suzhou for a meeting. After the meeting, a visit to the local rosewood factory became a must-have. These public funds don't care about the price when they are bought. The more expensive you buy, the more expensive you buy.

Beginning in 2007, the capital flowing into the mahogany furniture market was hundreds of times higher than the capital that had originally entered the market. At the same time that the prices of raw materials were being fired, manufacturing such as "Southeast Asian countries restrict the scarcity of export resources" "Fast", "the best-known products of famous households".

"This is the most chaotic and confusing market. The information is asymmetric and opaque. What resources are scarce. The treasures of the world are all bluffed and exaggerated. The transparency of the market is not as good as the stock market." Nanjing, which has been in the redwood collection industry for many years Redwood dealer Zhou Xiaodong told reporters.

The range of mahogany includes eight categories of rosewood, rosewood, wenge, sapwood, and rosewood. In fact, with the exception of very few varieties such as Phoebe chinensis, many varieties are not as scarce as speculators say.

Two years ago, in order to clarify the real situation of the high price of red sandalwood wood, Professor Zhou Mo of the Chinese Society of Cultural Heritage went to India and Vietnam five times to investigate the export volume and stock of red sandalwood. According to his understanding, South Asia and Southeast Asia are suitable for the growth of red sandalwood and other materials, and a batch will be mined in a few years. Occasional export restrictions have become speculation topics for speculators and opportunities to increase shipments.

"Hold" speculators

It is not difficult to find that in the process of the price fluctuation of mahogany furniture, there are always rumors and all kinds of beautiful lies.

Due to the limited sales of mahogany furniture, in the eyes of professional speculators, as long as they can quickly monopolize the entire supply chain in a short period of time, they can create a "great price myth" that makes them rich overnight. The participating players were intoxicated by the super "bubble" they made.

One of the largest distribution centers of mahogany in China-Xianyou, Fujian. The timber was kept in place in the warehouse for a few days, and it changed hands several times, and the price also increased several times, creating a myth of wealth in the local area. The locals have a mantra: "One million yuan is not rich, there are many multi-millionaires, and there are not few billionaires."

"This market is too crazy, the hot money is fierce, and the bubble has blown out." Said the Fujian boss who is engaged in timber imports in Zhangjiagang. Those who take orders at a high level are like entering the stock market at a high of 6000 points. Although he was very careful, the locked-in inventory erased years of profit.

"It is not only dealers but also many mahogany furniture manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang," he said. The reporter inquired about the mahogany manufacturers in Changzhou and Changshu who had business contacts with them. They all sighed and refused to talk more.

A person in charge of a mahogany furniture factory in Suzhou, who asked not to be named, said that due to the rapid shrinkage of market sales, the price of hoarded materials fell again and again, the company's liquidity was difficult, and a large number of layoffs. Going home, I can only deal with inventory at a reduced price, hoping to survive with a broken arm and deal with an unprecedented crisis.

Yu Xuejun, director of the Jiangsu Banking Regulatory Bureau, who has conducted a research on the mahogany raw material market in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions, said that the madness of the mahogany market is essentially consistent with the rotation of speculation of Pu'er tea, Maotai liquor, Hetian jade to agricultural products in these years. The currency phenomenon shows that the market is flooded with hot money. Due to the lack of supervision of these niche markets, it is easy to become a place for hot money to successfully set up an ambush circle, and a large number of overnight wealth and bankruptcy phenomena exist.

"Behind the diving of mahogany furniture from the skyrocketing high platform, is the result of the withdrawal of hot money, and it is also a typical sample of the bursting of the Chinese-style asset bubble under the background of flooding liquidity." A person in Jiangsu's financial industry told reporters.

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