Nuclear Power Cooldown Tests the General Target of Emission Reduction during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan

Due to the nuclear leakage caused by the Japan earthquake, the State Council executive meeting on March 16 decided to adjust and improve the mid- and long-term plans for the development of nuclear power. According to industry experts, this largely means that nuclear power may have "planned" targets that are likely to "shrink."

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outline also released on March 16 clearly stated that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, non-fossil energy will account for 11.4% of primary energy consumption. According to the government's existing commitments, by 2020 China's non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, of which nuclear power will contribute 4%. If nuclear power plans are adjusted, the decline in the proportion of nuclear power will undoubtedly affect the realization of the entire non-fossil energy target and the transformation of energy structure.

According to market participants, if nuclear power planning targets are lowered, it may be “releasing space” for the development of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics, and the internal allocation of 11.4% will face changes. However, under the existing new energy development system, Water, wind, light and other energy sources, including the development and utilization of traditional thermal power, also have their own "conundrums." In addition, if China's overall nuclear power planning goals are adjusted, the nuclear power plans that are being prepared or issued in various places will also face adjustments. In the context of the just-released "12th Five-Year Plan," it is clear that the adjustment of nuclear power planning goals also involves a huge project.

The trend of “rising” progressed at the end of the State Council’s executive meeting’s decision to comprehensively review the nuclear power plants under construction, strictly examine and approve new nuclear power projects, step up the preparation of nuclear safety planning, and adjust and improve the mid- and long-term plans for the development of nuclear power. Prior to the approval of the nuclear safety plan, the suspension of approval of nuclear power projects includes the implementation of pre-projects. It can be said that the State Council's decision on the “suspending approval of nuclear power projects” has thrown cold water on the recent upsurge of multiple provinces competing to apply for nuclear power projects.

According to statistics from China Nuclear Energy Information Network, there are currently 43 nuclear power plant projects in operation, under construction, and under construction in China, and the cumulative investment has reached as high as 1.8 trillion yuan. China’s nuclear power construction has even been criticized by industry experts as “overheating”.

In recent years, due to the tight energy supply situation and increasing pressure for emission reduction, China’s nuclear power development policy has gradually shifted from the previous caution to a positive trend. In recent years, the number of nuclear power projects approved and under construction in China has also grown significantly. The data shows that the total installed capacity of nuclear power projects currently under construction in China ranks first in the world. It was precisely because of the policy support for nuclear power that various localities began to invest in the development of nuclear power, and the number of applications for inland nuclear power projects also increased significantly.

Many central enterprises, including the five major power groups, have even started coveting the monopoly power of nuclear power, and have repeatedly called for the release of the holding power of nuclear power so that more entities can participate in the construction and operation of nuclear power.

This phenomenon has also caused the concern of many nuclear power experts in the industry. Some experts said that the rapid development of nuclear power, it is likely to have hidden concerns in the safety of nuclear power, and therefore called for nuclear power safety regulations and systems as early as possible.

As of the end of 2010, there are 13 nuclear power units in operation in China, including the Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station and the Zhejiang Qinshan Nuclear Power Station. The State Council has approved 34 nuclear power generating units with an installed capacity of 36.92 million kilowatts, of which 28 units have been under construction, accounting for global Nuclear power is under construction at 40%.

It is understood that after 2009, inland provinces including Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui have rushed to report on local nuclear power planning. For example, Hebei Province, which does not yet have nuclear power, plans to start construction of two nuclear power plants during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. However, due to the State Council’s announcement of the suspension of the approval of new nuclear power projects, Hebei’s “Dream of Nuclear Power” temporarily encountered resistance.

Japan’s nuclear crisis will enable all parties involved to reflect on China’s nuclear power development strategy and speed plan in a timely and fully reflective manner, so as to ensure that nuclear power planning and development are more scientific and healthy. Experts in the industry stated that as the executive meeting of the State Council issues a "suspensive order" for nuclear power, China's mid- and long-term nuclear power development plan may be adjusted accordingly.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said that the decision of the State Council has no impact on the overall strategy for the development of China's nuclear power, but will affect its development speed. The nuclear power development schedule previously set may be postponed accordingly. Nuclear power in recent years The leap forward phenomenon will also end.