The coke market continues its low turbulence

Affected by the multiple favorable policies and steel coke enterprises that started in September, the price of coke prices fluctuated and rebounded in October. In the later period, the domestic economy continued to stabilise and the coke supply pressure eased. The coke period price still constituted a large support, but at the same time, the coke was downstream. Demand is also weak and the coke price constitutes a major repression. With pressure on and under support, coke prices are expected to remain low and fluctuating.

I. The domestic economy continues to maintain steady growth

In October 2014, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.8. Despite a 0.3 percentage point drop from the previous month, the PMI remained above the 50% threshold, while HSBC's China Manufacturing PMI for October was 50.4. Higher than the previous month's final value of 50.2, and set a three-month high. The October data shows that under the new normal, China's manufacturing industry in general continues to maintain a stable operation, but there is a certain downward pressure.

Second, the supply and demand of coke

1. The growth rate of coke production continues to fall, while exports maintain a rising trend

In September, the country's coke production increased slightly to 40.12 million tons from 39.93 million tons in August, but the year-on-year growth rate fell for two consecutive months, from the previous month's 1.4% to -0.96%, from positive to negative. In September, the export coke volume and the year-on-year growth rate continued to rebound. The year-on-year growth rate increased from 78.69% in the previous month to 122.57%.

2. Downstream demand

From January to September 2014, the cumulative output of crude steel was 617.99 million tons, which represented a year-on-year increase to 2.34%, a slight decline for three consecutive months. In September, the crude steel production decreased from 68.91 million tons in August to 67.91 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate. It also maintained its downward trend, falling from 1.04% in August to 0.02%. On the whole, the growth rate of crude steel production still maintained a downward trend, and coke formation was bearish.

3, inventory situation

As of October 31, 2014, Tianjin Port had a stock of 1,739,500 tons, Lianyungang, a stock of 293,000 tons, Rizhao Port, a stock of 320,000 tons, and a total inventory of 2,352,500 tons. The total inventory of the three ports maintained a downward trend, among which Tianjin Port stocks The downward trend is obvious. The drop in coke port inventory will short-term Lido coke prices.

Third, the market outlook

The stabilization of the domestic economy, the decline in the output of coke, the recovery in exports, and the declining trend of coke inventories all supported the formation of coke prices, but at the same time, the weaker downstream demand was still a major repression of the price of carbon. There was pressure on them and there was support. Under the circumstances, it is expected that coke prices will remain volatile in the low range. Operation, it is recommended that high throw low suction short-term operation.