Crude oil rebound petrochemical system welcomes Xiao Yangchun

Since April 5, the price of crude oil has continued to rise, and the petrochemical system in the ** variety has rebounded sharply. On April 8, PTA's main 1509 contract continued to soar 3.49% after the daily limit on Tuesday, leading the market; Polypropylene main 1509 contract followed closely behind, as high as 1.87%, plastic ** also stabilized yesterday after a sustained correction It rose slightly by 0.1% throughout the day.

Since June 2014, Brent crude has been diving straight from the high of 115.71 US dollars/barrel, with the lowest drop to 46.4 US dollars/barrel, a drop of up to 60%. The price drop was transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain. The prices of chemical products also fell from highs. PTA prices dropped from 7,500 yuan/ton to 4,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 40%. Polypropylene and plastics fell by a similar amount.

In the midst of this year, when crude oil stabilized and rebounded in mid-January, chemical products were also supported, but this support was weakening. For example, the impact of oil prices on plastics has been significantly weakened, mainly in the crude oil-naphtha-ethylene-polyethylene industry chain, where the interactions and changes in various aspects have changed.

Analysts pointed out that since Asian and even global crude oil processing plants are in the period of centralized repairs, the production of plastic materials such as naphtha and ethylene has seen a tight supply situation, and their prices have remained firm. Therefore, the production cost of plastics has not been due to oil prices. When prices drop, they appear to fall. On the contrary, the cost actually rises from the price of naphtha and ethylene. From the next one to two months, it is still a period of centralized maintenance of crude oil processing equipment, and the pattern of tight supply of raw materials will continue.

“The decline in plastics and polypropylene in the second half of 2014 was caused by the dual effects of the drop in crude oil and the large-scale production of new production capacity. Now, with the arrival of the centralized repair of polyethylene polypropylene processing equipment in the spring, the domestic supply and demand situation has improved. The impact of fluctuations on polyethylene polypropylene will gradually decrease," said the analyst.

At present, the petrochemical industry chain ushered in the equipment maintenance season, becoming the most direct factor in the supply and demand, induced rise market. According to Anxin **, LLDPE petrochemical plant, Daqing, Lanzhou, Pucheng Clean Energy, Yangtze, Maoming, Dushanzi, a total of 12 sets of maintenance and inspection equipment, involving a capacity of 2.268 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons compared to the previous; PP petrochemical plant , Maoming Petrochemical PP No. 1 unit (170,000 tons/year) stopped on March 24th; No. 2 unit (300,000 tons/year) was stopped and repaired on March 9.

In the spot market, some petrochemicals continued to increase the LLDPE ex-factory price, and merchants actively followed up the shipments. However, the terminal's resistance to high-priced raw materials is obvious, the demand for follow-up is slow, and the shipment volume is generally low. In terms of PP, the ex-factory price of some petrochemical enterprises has risen slightly, which further strengthens the market's cost support. Traders ship shipments and watch the market dominate. Downstream companies are cautiously waiting to see things. They are more likely to purchase according to production conditions and have lower willingness to take the initiative to stock their goods.

“At present, the domestic supply and demand situation of these two varieties has improved. At present, the basic aspect of LLDPE's overall supply and demand is better in energy-saving varieties, and there is a gap between supply and demand. At the same time, the centralized inspection conducted in the second quarter also supports the price. Therefore, although the overall weakness of crude oil, LLDPE prices are still strong.PP is in the balance of supply and demand will soon be balanced, even a slight excess of low-end material capacity, but due to the current overhaul of the device is also more, more goods out of stock phenomenon, the spot bias Tight, the price is relatively strong. "Qu Yanxi said.

Looking into the future trend, she further stated that plastics prices have a relatively high rate of increase in the previous period, and there is a high possibility of technical corrections in the later period. However, PP is likely to continue its shocks because of the upcoming consumer season.