On September 28th, Hebei Province announced that the province was included in the list of 163 enterprises in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to eliminate backward production capacity, and completed the elimination task ahead of schedule. This is the result of the province’s continued use of “iron fist†measures to promote the elimination of backward production capacity.
The reporter learned from the China Iron and Steel Association on the same day that the association recently conducted a survey of local steel production and found that some local steel companies restricted production in the form of production, such as limited production during the day and accelerated production at night; The government restricts electricity use, but companies continue to produce electricity with their own electricity.
According to the data of the combined metal network, the crude steel output in early September has increased compared with the end of August, while the crude steel output in mid-September has declined, but the decline is not large.
Zhang Daikun, an analyst with United Metals, told reporters that many of the outdated boilers that were eliminated were actually reported in previous years. When these projects were eliminated, they had already prepared or installed larger boilers. “This makes the actual capacity decline not very fast.â€
Near the fourth quarter, the centrally-led capacity control and emission reduction targets have entered a critical period. Officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in the fourth quarter, it is necessary to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, ensure the completion of this year's target tasks, and at the same time promote industrial energy conservation and emission reduction, and promote the development of circular economy.
Excess industries still speed up production?
Xin Guobin, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the industrial growth rate will show a trend of “before low and then high†this year. It is expected that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by 16% in the first three quarters, and the annual growth rate will reach 13%-14 %.
According to the reporter, this latest forecast is higher than a few months ago. Li Yizhong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, predicted at a symposium on July 22 that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will be slightly higher than 10% in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate will reach about 13%.
Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at Industrial Bank, believes that if the government departments make this judgment, the industrial growth rate in the next few months may rise. It predicts that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will reach more than 14% in September, up from 13.9% in August. “Overcapacity industries are still accelerating production, and many places are escaping from the elimination of backward production capacity, and achieving energy-saving targets by expanding the GDP base.â€
According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the national crude steel output in August was 51.68 million tons, which was 2% lower than that in July. As the crude steel output in the first half of September still increased, the industry expects that the crude steel output in September will only decrease slightly in August.
The China Iron and Steel Association predicts that the country's primary steel output in the first half of September will be 32.43 million tons, down only 1.87 million tons from the middle of August, and the decline will be 5%.
"Steel prices are rising, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and other large enterprises are accelerating production, and small steel mills are even more eager to move. Actual steel production capacity will still be released to a large extent." Zhang Daikun believes.
In view of the current pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction, Xin Guobin, director of the Operation and Monitoring Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in the fourth quarter, it is still necessary to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity and ensure the completion of this year's emission reduction targets.
No worries about economic growth
Officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the current trend of industrial transformation from recovery to stable growth has been basically established, production has maintained rapid growth, overall corporate benefits have improved, and employment and export conditions have also recovered. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 8.5 percentage points year-on-year.
Chen Dongqi, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, believes that if the local government does not increase energy conservation and emission reduction, it will be difficult to ensure that the new economic cycle starting next year will have a good start, and the new cycle duration will be affected.
When Chen recently researched in the Yangtze River Delta, some entrepreneurs told him that the current government is inclined to implement a method of forcibly closing power cuts instead of regulating emissions through marketization. But Chen Dongqi believes that there may be no better way to reduce emissions.
"Many localities or enterprises have a large number of assessments for their performance. Sometimes they do not take this approach," he said at a recent macroeconomic forum.
From another perspective, if the economy still maintains the high speed of the first two quarters, global commodities will surely rise again. As a result, the Chinese economy has experienced a steady decline in the quarter, and it has also stabilized global demand expectations and reduced the cost of economic growth.
The political commissar of Lu believes that if the economic figures in September are still relatively beautiful, the state will adopt more stringent administrative measures in the fourth quarter to increase industrial energy conservation and emission reduction.
"Since the 4 trillion national projects in the fourth quarter will begin to inspect, it is expected that investment will continue to accelerate, which will make up for the vacancy caused by the decline in industrial growth due to energy conservation and emission reduction." Lu political commissar said that the Chinese economy maintained an increase of more than 9% throughout the year. Speed ​​is still worry free.
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