As the head of a large power generation group in Hunan, a thermal power plant, Sun Jun (a pseudonym) predicted that there would be a serious shortage of electricity in Hunan soon. Prior to this, Qinhuangdao coal prices once again hit a new high in the year, and seven provinces and municipalities have successively introduced policies to increase industrial electricity prices in response to severe power shortages. Authorities predict that the nation's power shortage situation will be further severe, especially in Central China, and it will be difficult to avoid power cuts this winter. The loss of thermal power is expanding, and the power shortage is severe. "This power shortage may be very big. It is difficult to avoid power cuts because the coal price will be higher and higher in the fourth quarter. We missed the best time to store coal." The military told the First Financial Daily (microblogging). A few days ago, the Hunan provincial leaders went to the province to investigate the major thermal power plants, and put forward the "control coal and electricity." That is to say, all the main thermal power plants that have been tuned must drive the units to generate electricity, and the coal reserves are all transferred out. Sun Jun’s power plant is also within the main force because it has two 300,000 kW units. However, due to the fact that it has just entered the fourth quarter in October, the electricity consumption has not reached its peak, and the thermal power plant is still hoping to store a portion of the coal in the month to cope with the difficulties. However, this time, "control coal and electricity" not only failed to fill the power gap, but after a short period of concentrated power generation, it exhausted the painstaking inventory of major power plants, so that Hunan and even the entire Central China region will face serious power shortage in the fourth quarter. "The contradictions will be exposed in the second half of November. There may be one third of enterprises that have been cut off to cut electricity, or they may raise industrial electricity prices." Sun Jun told this newspaper. According to reports, the daily electricity load in Hunan Province is about 12 million kWh per day, so there may be a load of 3 million to 4 million kWh. At the same time, Sun Jun also noticed that the neighboring coal-producing province of Guizhou Province also began to reduce coal out of the province to ensure local power generation. "Guizhou produces coal but also lacks coal. At present, it is most self-sufficient." In Sun Jun's view, the expansion of thermal power companies' losses is the main reason for the lack of electricity. "At present, the large unit of 600,000 kilowatts in Hunan can not lose at most, and the 300,000 kilowatt unit as the main force will lose more than 2 cents per kilowatt hour." Sun Jun told this newspaper. Behind the thermal power loss, it is the amazing increase in coal prices recently. A few days ago, Qinhuangdao Coal Network released data showing that the comprehensive average price of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index closed at 853 yuan / ton, which broke the highest level of the index for more than a year, after the price index continued to rise for four consecutive periods. The overall increase was 24 yuan / ton. It is understood that this is the record coal price of Qinhuangdao has reached a new high since the coal price reached a record 1,000 yuan / ton in 2004. Anzhiyuan, an analyst of the shipping coal network, told this newspaper that if coal prices continue to rise, the operation of thermal power enterprises that are already under-funded will be more difficult and there is no money to buy coal, and the loss of power generation will also expand. At that time, the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises will be severely frustrated, and the resulting power shortage will also become more serious. In the fourth quarter, there will be a shortage of 40 million kilowatts of electricity. In fact, in addition to Hunan, the nationwide shortage of electricity is spreading. According to the statistics of the reporters, since the end of September, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Anhui and Gansu provinces, as well as Ningbo and Yulin, have introduced policies to increase the electricity price of industrial electricity sales due to the increasing power shortage. For example, Gansu Province just launched an emergency plan for energy conservation and consumption reduction on November 3, and imposed penalties on 39 enterprises across the province. On November 1st, Anhui Province also charged more than one-fold over the limit price and added 0.1 yuan/kWh of electricity to the excess. Xue Jing, director of the Statistics Department of the China Electricity Council, told this newspaper that the local government can adjust the industrial electricity price in line with the national industrial policy after filing with the National Development and Reform Commission. However, this practice in the above provinces and cities also illustrates the seriousness of local power shortages. Xue Jing predicted to the newspaper that the national power gap will reach 40 million kilowatts in the fourth quarter of this year. Among them, Central China and South China will be the most serious, accounting for more of the provinces that raise electricity prices. She also said that due to the current poor progress in the winter coal storage plan of thermal power plants in North China and Northeast China, similar phenomena may follow in Central China and South China. Haitong Securities (9.36, 0.06, 0.65%) (microblogging) research report also believes that the reason for the increase in electricity prices in the above-mentioned areas, on the one hand, due to the high price of thermal coal this year, thermal power companies operating difficulties, the fourth quarter belongs to traditional coal At the peak, even if the current economic growth rate slows down slightly, the overall energy demand is strong, making coal prices difficult to fall in the short term. On the other hand, because the water supply in the southwestern part of the wet season has fallen sharply year-on-year, it has generated electricity in the dry season of the fourth quarter. The capacity is further reduced, and it is difficult to meet the demand for electricity in the region.
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